Just Wired

During the last few days a lot of people were wondering why, after the economic collapse and John McCain saying that the “fundamentals of the economy are strong,” Barack Obama was still up in the polls by only a few points. A few people argued that it was because the polling research wasn’t taking into account the people who use only cell phones, who happen to be predominantly young and Barack Obama supporters, in lieu of land lines. The Pew Research Center conducted a research study on this issue and came up with a few interesting numbers:

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has conducted three major election surveys with both cell phone and landline samples since the conclusion of the primaries. In each of the surveys, there were only small, and not statistically significant, differences between presidential horserace estimates based on the combined interviews and estimates based on the landline surveys only. Yet a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin.

If you narrow the window down to only those under 30 the results become more skewed towards Obama and the Democrats, which is definitely reassuring.

Among landline respondents under age 30, there is an 18-point gap in party identification – 54% identify or lean Democratic while 36% are Republican. Among the cell-only respondents under age 30, there is a 34-point gap – 62% are Democrats, 28% Republican. The difference among registered voters on the horserace is similar: 39% of registered voters under 30 reached by landline favor McCain, compared with just 27% of cell-only respondents. Obama is backed by 52% of landline respondents under 30, compared with 62% of the cell-only.

The question, however, is: How many of these young people will actually turn out to vote? Usually it’s the older voters who go to the polls. The young people, whatever they say about voting before the election, usually stay back home on voting day. Remember how the 2004 election was supposed to be all about the young voters, who were supposedly going to vote in droves to deny Bush a second term? Well guess what, they didn’t show up on the most important day and we were stuck with the moron for another four years.

The agency also found that turnout rates were closely correlated to a voter’s age. A little more than 73 percent of those between 65 and 74 said they voted, the highest rate for any age group. Those between the ages of 18 and 24 had the lowest, with 47 percent reported going to the polls.

Hopefully it won’t be the same again this time, or else we are in big trouble.

Source: Pew Research Center, The Washington Post